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Latest COVID-19 modelling data shows promising summer

COVID modelling promising

B.C.'s latest COVID-19 modelling shows some promising news, as vaccination rates continue to climb across the province.

Dr. Bonnie Henry presented the latest data Thursday afternoon, which shows new daily COVID-19 cases remaining relatively low through the summer.

The dynamic compartmental modelling graph shows modelling for four different scenarios, from lower vaccine uptake with a 80 per cent of normal contact rate, to higher vaccine uptake with a 70 per cent of normal contact rate.

The worst modelling scenario shows daily cases remaining under about 250 through the summer, while the higher vaccine uptake scenarios show daily cases dropping to a few dozen by August.

Dr. Henry has cautioned in the past that modelling scenarios are not necessarily predictions of the future, but simply possibilities of what could occur, given what we know today.

The latest data also shows the number of infections caused by each single infection in B.C. is dropping, although the so-called "reproductive number" remains highest in the Interior Health authority.

If the reproductive number remains above one for an extended period of time, that can lead to exponential transmission of the virus. Across B.C., that number has dropped to 0.57, which means on average, 0.57 people become infected with COVID-19 for every one person who contracts the disease.

And while that number remains below one in the Interior as well, it is currently at 0.79, by far the highest of any health authority. In recent weeks, the Interior has regularly seen the second highest number of daily cases behind only the Fraser Health region.



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