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Pandemic could claim as many as 44,000 Canadians: experts

Grim death projections

UPDATE: 10:05 a.m.

Canada could see the end of the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic before autumn, according to federal projections, but only if strong physical distancing measures are strictly maintained the whole time.

Even in that best-case scenario, the federal public health agency projects that 4,400 to 44,000 Canadians could die of COVID-19 in the coming months. The high end of that scale is double what was reported earlier this morning.

If those containment measures are relaxed or abandoned, the death toll could be much, much higher, the agency says.

"These stark numbers tell us that we must do everything that we can now to stay in that best-case scenario," said chief public health officer Dr. Theresa Tam, in releasing the national projections Thursday morning in Ottawa.

Canada can't prevent every death, but it must prevent every death that it can, she said.

The agency released modelling data with different scenarios, warning that what happens depends very much on how Canadians behave to keep the respiratory illness from spreading.

"Models are not a crystal ball and cannot predict what will happen," said Tam.


ORIGINAL: 6:45 a.m.

With strong control measures, the federal public health agency projects that 11,000 to 22,000 Canadians could die of COVID-19 in the coming months.

The Public Health Agency of Canada says short-term estimates are more reliable, and it anticipates 500 to 700 deaths by the end of next week.

The agency released modelling data this morning with different possible scenarios, warning that what happens depends very much on how Canadians behave to keep the respiratory illness from spreading.

With poor containment measures, the death toll could be much, much higher, the agency says.

It says the COVID-19 battle in Canada is still in its early stages but Canada's numbers of confirmed cases have been increasing more slowly than in other countries.

The agency said the fight against the novel coronavirus will likely take many months and require cycles of tighter and weaker controls.



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