Insights West poll finds voters upset with Liberal election call

Photo: CTV News

As we enter the final days ahead of Monday's federal election, voter sentiment in British Columbia has narrowed and solidified.

The latest survey by Vancouver-based Insights West shows the Liberals in third place with 22 per cent of decided voters, and the Conservatives and NDP in a statistical tie.

“It appears as though the Liberals will be the losing party in this election—at least among BC voters – when we look at the popular vote” says Steve Mossop, President of Insights West.

“The Liberals were unable to stop the slide throughout this campaign, as the electorate was never able to get over the audacity of having what is perceived to be an expensive and unnecessary election during the fourth wave of the pandemic. As a result of this, there is an overwhelming sentiment that a change is needed in governance at the federal level here in BC, and the NDP and Conservatives will benefit most from this feeling. Whether the change here in BC is enough to upset the apple cart in the House of Commons for the rest of the nation will be understood better on election day when the final ballots are tallied in the rest of the country.”

Mossop says according to the latest poll, the Liberals will end up in third place in British Columbia after only a minor increase in voter support in the final days of the campaign and since their last poll (conducted September 1-4, 2021).

"Current indications are that the NDP has 33 per cent of decided voters, down 2 points from two weeks ago, and the Conservative Party is up one point to 34 per cent, while the third-place Liberals, despite being up three points will only get 22 per cent of decided voters in the province. The Green Party has the support of 7 per cent of the decided vote, down 1 point, and a small number, 4 per cent currently support the People’s Party," Mossop says.

The NDP is more popular among female voters, and 18-34 year-olds, while the Conservatives are more appealing to males, and the 55 years+ age group. The Liberals are also slightly more popular among female voters, and those who live in Metro Vancouver.

"Voter certainty has increased dramatically since our last poll two weeks ago, 80 per cent of decided voters are ‘very certain’ their vote will not change now compared to 62 per cent two weeks ago," says Mossop.

Insights West examined voter motivation and broke it down by party voting intentions, which revealed some interesting findings.

A significant percentage of BC voters, 72 per cent are voting the way they are because they want a change in government—but that number is dramatically higher for Conservative voters, 94 per cent, and NDP voters, 81 per cent versus Liberal voters, 19 per cent. Many voters, 74 per cent, are voting against the platform and policies of another party. Hurting the Liberals perhaps most is the finding that nearly half, 49 per cent of all voters are voting against the Liberals because they called an unnecessary election.

On an overall basis, the vast majority, 87 per cent of voters indicate they are selecting the party based on the platform or policies, and this does not vary by partisan vote.