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Metro Kelowna's unemployment rate has not been this low since February 2019

Jobless rate at four-year low

Metro Kelowna’s unemployment rate in February hit its lowest mark in four years.

According to Statistics Canada’s labour force survey released Friday, the region’s 3.5% jobless rate is the fourth lowest in the country and second lowest in Western Canada, behind only Victoria (3.3%). The rate has fallen 1.3% in the last two months alone.

The last time the unemployment rate in the Central Okanagan was this low was in February 2019, when it was also 3.5%.

Nationally, the jobless mark held steady at 5%, and employment showed modest growth after months of strong jobs gains. That is raising concerns a bustling labour market could lead to more interest rate hikes.

The national economy added 22,000 jobs last month, with employment up in the private sector. The bulk of the job gains were made in health care and social assistance, public administration and utilities. Meanwhile, jobs were lost in business, building and other support services.

The number of people working in Metro Kelowna in February jumped by 3,100 from January to March, leading to the lower unemployment rate. The number of unemployed people dropped by 500, and the participation rate, which is the share of the working-age population that is working or looking for work, jumped 1.3% to 61.5%.

The unemployment rate in the entire Thompson Okanagan region dropped slightly in February to 4.2% after registering at 4.3% in both December and January.

The ongoing strength in the national labour market is making many economists nervous about the chance of more rate hikes.

Although the jobs gains are less than previous months, TD director of economics James Orlando said it's still "too high."

“This is a concern because it means higher wages, which can feed through to higher inflation, and it could derail the Bank of Canada’s efforts to bring inflation down,” Orlando said.

Unemployment is still expected to rise in the coming months as high interest rates take the steam out of spending, slowing the economy.

Signs of that slowdown are already apparent. In the fourth quarter, the Canadian economy was treading water, posting zero per cent growth.

But Orlando cautioned against focusing only on the headline growth rate. Beneath that number was an uptick in consumer spending, suggesting high interest rates are not bogging down consumers.

The economist said the concern isn’t just that interest rates are taking a long time to affect the economy.

“It looks like there’s a resurgence in some of this data, specifically in the labour market and in the Canadian consumer,” he said. “The Bank of Canada needs to see a turn in the economy. We cannot keep getting job growth.”

With affordability top of mind for many Canadians, the latest jobs report shows the gap between wage growth and inflation is narrowing. Average hourly wages were up 5.4% in February compared with a year ago while annual inflation rate was 5.9% in January.

The Bank of Canada, which is working to bring down the country's high inflation rate, has raised concerns that sustained 4% to 5% wage growth will make it harder to return to its 2% inflation target.

But the central bank says it expects the labour market to ease in the coming months, as higher interest rates slow spending by people and businesses.

At its latest interest rate announcement, the Bank of Canada held its key rate steady at 4.5%, the highest it’s been since 2007.

Though high interest rates have already taken a toll, the full effect is still ahead, as economists estimate it can take up to two years for rate hikes to be digested by the economy.

— with files from The Canadian Press



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